The Bihar Assembly election is drawing to close with voting on 78 seats in the third and final phase of polling on November 7. This phase will see a multi-cornered contest in Seemanchal. The NDA's prospects depend a lot on the Mithilanchal region in this phase.
Two-thirds of Bihar Assembly has been elected in the first two phases of Bihar election, which might already have given a decisive push for who will rule the state for the next five years. Still, the third and final phase of the Bihar Assembly election on November 7 is tantalising because of the sheer nature of contest.
A total of 78 seats will go to the polls in 16 districts of north Bihar with a particular focus on Seemanchal region, and Mithilanchal in general.
MULTI-CORNERED PHASE
Unlike the previous two phases, in which the electoral contest was largely between the ruling NDA and rival Mahagathbandhan with the LJP of Lok Sabha MP Chirag Paswan making a triangular fight in some constituencies, this phase is likely to witness multi-cornered contest on many seats.
The other key players are the Grand Secular Democratic Front -- of Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and Mayawati’s BSP -- and the Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) of former Lok Sabha MP Rajiv Ranjan aka Pappu Yadav. In fact, the Bihar election began with too many CM hopefuls.
FRESH REALIGNMENTS
In 2015, the Mahagathbandhan comprising the RJD, the Congress and the Left parties in the current Bihar election had won 58 of these 78 seats. But back then Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JDU was a partner of the Mahagathbandhan. In fact, the alliance was named as such because of the unlikely tie-up between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad, the RJD chief.
The NDA then had the BJP, the LJP, the RLSP and the HAM of former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, and could win only 24 including 19 going to the BJP. Individually, the JDU had won 28 seats followed by the RJD 20, the BJP 19 and the Congress 10.
This time, the LJP has rebelled, impacting the JDU more than other parties. It has put up candidates against all 115 JDU contestants. The JDU has been hampered by defections largely due to the LJP’s rebellion. Going into the third phase, the JDU has had to expel more than 30 leaders from for anti-party activities.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION
The 24 seats of the Seemanchal region are in focus in the third phase. In the current alignment, the Mahagathbandhan has 14 MLAs, the NDA nine and the AIMIM one. Seemanchal has been a traditional stronghold of the RJD, courtesy the Muslim-Yadav vote bank.
If rebellion and defection have made it a challenge for the JDU to repeat its 2015 performance in the third phase of Bihar election, the coalition cobbled up by Owaisi and Kushwaha is likely to make it difficult for the RJD, especially in the Seemanchal region.
In Mithilanchal region, a total 38 Bihar Assembly seats are on the offer in the third phase in the districts of Darbhanga (5), Madhubani (6), Samastipur (5), Madhepura (8), Saharsa (8) and Sitamarhi (6). To add to this, six seats in the Muzaffarpur district will vote in the third phase of Bihar election.
Mithilanchal region is going to be a challenge for the BJP, which had drawn a naught in Madhubani, Samastipur, Madhepura and Saharsa in 2015. The BJP had won just six seats in the entire region.
This is why top BJP leaders, from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to party president JP Nadda, have spoken so much about development of Mithilanchal. The Darbhanga airport goes operational for passenger flights on November 8.
Two Champaran districts had held for the BJP even in the clean sweep by the RJD-JDU-Congress alliance in 2015. Voting will be held on the 11 seats of Champaran on November 7. In 2015, the BJP had won six.
The BJP hopes to retain that advantage while the RJD-led alliance eyes to breach the NDA stronghold with the 10 lakh government job promise made by chief ministerial hopeful Tejashwi Yadav.
Bihar Assembly has a total strength of 243 MLAs. A coalition needs the support of at least 122 MLAs to form the government in Bihar. The votes polled in all three phases in Bihar Assembly election will be counted on November 10. Results are likely to be known by the afternoon same day.
Source: IndiaToday
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